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Here is how the polls are shaping up, and how I see the final numbers---
The polling is showing O - 51 Mc- 44
I think the national total will be more like O - 51 Mc - 47 with the rest going about 1% each to McKinney, Nader, and Barr.
The EV though is going to O - 353 vs Mc - 185
With McCain dropping all of PA, FL and OH - which he needs all 3 to win in any scenario. Among the swing states McCain will take IN, and MO, Obama will take VA, NC, and all 3 of PA, OH and FL.
The biggest problems McCain has faced are these
- The economic down turn, if this had held up until mid Nov, he may have made a race of this yet.
- The Category 5 Moron Gov. Sarah Palin. She helped him initially across the board. But then she started talking and answering tough questions like "what newspapers do you read?" and that was pretty much the end. Now she still energizes the social conservatives big time, but she has turned off the moderates and independents. McCain was winning Independent voters by 15 points, and is now losing them by 5, and the biggest reason they state is Palin.
- No consistent messaging or theme. Elections and campaigns are like national ad campaigns or sales pitches. You gotta be clear on why the buyer needs your product. "I like Ike" and "Have a Coke and smile" are timeless. Obama's "Change we need" vs McCain's too inexperienced, Ayers - no Kalidi no - Victory in Iraq, no wait, he's a redistributionist, no wait Joe the Plumber, no I mean... McCain needed to have reason why people whould vote for him, and he was too chickens*** to just come out and say "ya can't vote for the coon!" with the Confederate Flag flying behind him.
- Home foreclosures, whiloe separate from the Wall Street meltdown, are tied in. This alone was killing McCain, but slowly. Without the Wall Street collapse, he may have weathered it.
- Iraq.
The 45% of his vote total is basically those voters who are convinced that their church requires them to vote Republican (30%), the very wealthy (2%), "true conservative intellectuals (10%) or the very racist (3%). There is likely some spillover from the churchers and the racists.
But back to the Presidential election.
McCain has run a horrible campaign. As you noted, there was not any kind of underlying theme. No conviction or compassionate topic. As the financial markets started failing, McCain said the economy was strong, and a couple hours later, he said just the opposite. He suspended his campaign, layed down the gaunlet, then picked it up and sulked to the debate. McCain rails against the influence of lobbists, but his entire top line campaign staff are lobbyists!
The Palin pick was a disaster. First, her convention speech was her introduction to the American people; she came across as a mean spirited snot. Oh, the red meat right loved it, but the majority of the American people were not in the mood for a divisive snot. Then Palin did the Gibson and Kouric interviews and showed that, not only is she a snot, but a not particularly smart or informed snot.
The Republicans decry her protrayal on Saturday Night Live. Yet, in many of the skits, Tiny Fey used Palin's EXACT words! I saw a great montage on the 'net, showing an overlay of Palin's words with Fey's skits. Uncanny.
Enter Joe the Plumber. WTF!! That guy is going to be your average American representative? He looks like a neonazi skinhead! Even a dyed in the wool Republican coworker told me that she was sick of "that plumber guy."
And there is truth to the accusation that McCain/Palin and their surrogates used race. When the crowds at their rallies show up frothing at the mouth, screaming "kill him" "terrorist" "McCain, not Hussein" and they don't say anything to stop it, then by their silence they are condoning it.
They have tried to paint Obama as unpatriotic, as they have done with all Democrats who run for office. Contrast that with Obama, who praises McCain's service to our nation, and when his crowds boo, tells them "don't boo, just vote." Obama is the man we need leading us through the next uncertain years. One who will truly reach across party lines and get things done for our country.
The American people see 2 choices. In McCain they see an erratic hothead, who flubbed his first important decision (picking Palin). They hear McCain say he is going to change the tone of Washington politics, but is running a classic Rovian campaign. They see the way he treats his wife--like she is 2nd class citizen who should be seen and not heard. Is that how he sees us? Useful tools who will be discarded once he reaches the White House?
On the other side they see a man who represents change and understands the issues facing our country and the world. They see a man who is calm and thoughtful. He treats his lovely wife with respect and genuine affection. We see him as treating us with respect. They know that Obama and his wife turned down great jobs in large law firms with the accompanying large salaries to work in their community. They came from poor/middle class families, working their way through some of the most respected colleges in the land.
Obama, and his sterling selection of Joe Biden as VP, will turn this country around. No more cronies running governmental agencies, but highly qualified people who are selected for their talents, not as personal favors.
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